Brynjar Lia

• — "Fra militsstyre til stat: I hvilken grad har Syria lyktes med å integrere landets mange militser og opprørsgrupper?" Internasjonal Politikk 84, nr. 2 (2026): 1-14.
• — With Truls Hallberg Tønnessen. "Hvor ble det av jihadistene i Syria?" Babylon: Nordisk tidsskrift for midtøstenstudier 23, nr. 1 (2025): 50-69.
• — "Religiøs autoritet blant militante islamistar. Tilfellet mulla Krekar." Babylon: Nordisk tidsskrift for midtøstenstudier 22, nr. 1 (2024): 48-62.
• — "Al-Qaʿida Revisited." Bustan: The Middle East Book Review 14, no. 1 (July 2023): 17–34.
• — With Dag Tuastad & Erling Lorentzen Sogge. "Rebel governance and kinship groups in the Middle East and Africa." Introduction to Special Issue in Third World Thematics: A TWQ Journal 6, no. 1-3 (2021): 1-11.
• — "The Islamic State’s Tribal Policies in Syria and Iraq." Third World Thematics: A TWQ Journal 6, no. 1-3 (2021): 32-51.
• — With Mathilde Becker Aarseth. "Crusader Hirelings or Loyal Subjects? Evolving Jihadist Perspectives on Christian Minorities in the Middle East." Islam and Christian-Muslim Relations 33, no. 3 (2022): 255-280.
• — "A Kurdish al-Qaida? Making Sense of the Ansar al-Islam Movement in Iraqi Kurdistan in the Early 2000s." Religions: Special Issue on Islamist Movements in the Middle East 13, no. 3 (2022): 203.
• — "Hasan al-Banna et la fondation des Frères musulmans." In Histoire des mobilisations islamistes (XIXe-XXIe siècles), sous la direction de François Burgat & Matthieu Rey. 93-106. Paris: CNRS, 2022.
• — With Neil Ketchley & Steven Brooke. "Who supported the early Muslim Brotherhood?" Politics and Religion 15, no. 2 (2022): 388-416.
• — “Muhajirat-fenomenet: Hvordan ble kvinner fra Europa rekruttert til ISIL, og hva var deres rolle i Kalifatet?” Nytt Norsk Tidsskrift 36, no. 2 (2019): 100-114.
• — "Islamistisk ekstremisme - en innføring." In Radikalisering: fenomen og forebygging, edited by Ellen Reiss and Linda Noor. 93-103. Oslo: Oslo: Minotenk / Frekk forlag, 2018.
• — “The Jihādī Movement and Rebel Governance: A Reassertion of a Patriarchal Order?” Die Welt des Islams 57, no.3-4 (2017): 458-479.
• — With Rania Maktabi. “Middle Eastern Patriarchy in Transition.” Introduction to special issue of Die Welt des Islams 57, no.3-4 (2017): 265-277.
• — "Fanatismens seier? Jihadismens frammarsj i den arabiske verden". Babylon: Nordisk tidsskrift for midtøstenstudier 15, no.2 (2016): 60-85.
• — "لماذا تضخمت السلفية الجهادية بعد 2011 ؟", Middle East Policy (Winter 2016). Arabic translation by Iyad Suwid, Research Service Group.
• — "Jihadism in the Arab World after 2011: Explaining its Expansion", Middle East Policy 23, no.4 (2016): 74-91.
• — With P Nesser. "Jihadism in Norway: a Typology of Militant Networks in a Peripheral European Country". Perspectives on Terrorism 10, no.6 (2016): 121-134
• — "En undersøgelse af islamistiske statsdannelsesforsøg". In: Splittelsen i global jihad: Kampen mellem IS og al-Qaeda. Edited by Manni Crone. 30-43. Copenhagen: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS), 2016.
• — "The Islamist Uprising in Syria, 1976-82: The History and Legacy of a Failed Revolt". British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies 43, no.4 (2016): 541-559.
• — "Autobiography or Fiction? Ḥasan al-Bannā’s Memoirs Revisited". Journal of Arabic and Islamic Studies 15 (2015): 199-226.
• — "Understanding Jihadi Proto-States". Perspectives on Terrorism: Special Issue on the Islamic State 9, no.4 (2015): 31-41.
• — "Korsfarernes medløpere eller lydige undersåtter? Jihadistbevegelsens syn på kristne minoriteter i Midtøsten". In De kristne i Midtøsten: kampen for tilhørighet, edited by Berit Thorbjørnsrud. 193-213. Oslo: Cappelen Damm, 2015.
• — "غلاة النظريين المدمرين : نقد أبي مصعب السوري للسلفيين في التيار الجهادي." In السلفية العالمية: الحركات السلفية المعاصرة في عالم متغير, edited by Roel Meijer. 393-419. Beirut: Arab Network for Research and Publishing, 2014.
• — "Jihadistbevegelsen i den arabiske verden før og etter 2011″. Babylon: Nordisk tidsskrift for midtøstenstudier 12, no.2 (2014): 8-22.
• —  With P Nesser. "Norske muslimske fremmedkrigere". Nytt Norsk Tidsskrift 31, no.4 (2014): 399-416.
• — With P Nesser & A Stenersen. "Ekstremisme i sosiale medier: En oversikt over forskning, internasjonale trender og implikasjoner for norske forhold". In Forebygging av radikalisering og voldelig ekstremisme på internett, edited by Inger Marie Sunde. 80-104. Oslo: Politihøyskolen, PHS Forskningsrapport No 2013:1.
• — "Profetens Ummah og sosiale medier". In Forebygging av radikalisering og voldelig ekstremisme på internett, edited by Inger Marie Sunde. 105-112. Oslo: Politihøyskolen, PHS Forskningsrapport No 2013:1.
• — Müslüman Kardeşlerin doğuşu 1928-1942. ["The Society of the Muslim Brothers"] Translated by İhsan Toker. Istanbul: Ekin Yayınları, 2013.
• — "What is terrorism?". In Winds of Change: On Irregular Warfare. 360-374. Helsinki: National Defence University of Finland, Publication series, N:o 18, 2012.
• — "Osama bin Laden: mannen bak al-Qaida". Samtiden, no.3 (2011): 247-251.
• — "Al Qaeda without Bin Laden". In The U.S. vs. al Qaeda: A History of the War on Terror, edited by Gideon Rose & Jonathan Tepperman. 247-251. New York: Council of Foreign Affairs, 2011.
• — "Al Qaeda Without Bin Laden: How Terrorists Cope With their Leader's Death". ForeignAffairs.com & CNN.com (May 11, 2011).
• — "Jihadis divided between strategists and doctrinarians". In Faultlines in Global Jihad: Organizational, Strategic, and ideological fissures, edited by Assaf Moghadam and Brian Fishman. 69-87. London: Routledge, 2011.
• — "Insight and Hypotheses on Causes of Terrorism Identified on the Basis of a Survey of the Literature on Terrorism". In The Routledge Handbook of Terrorism Research, edited by Alex P. Schmid. 276-279. London: Routledge, 2011.
• — "Jihadi Strategists and Doctrinarians". In Self-Inflicted Wounds Debates and Divisions within al-Qa’ida and its Periphery, edited by Assaf Moghadam & Brian Fishman. 100-131. New York: Combating Terrorism Center, 2010.
• — With P Nesser. "Lessons Learned from the July 2010 Norwegian Terrorist Plot". CTC Sentinel 3, no. 8 (2010): 13-17.
• — (جمعیت اخوان المسلمین مصر : ظهور یک جنبش توده ای اسلامی (۱۹۲۸-۱۹۴۲ ["The Society of the Muslim Brothers in Egypt: The Rise of an Islamic Mass Movement, 1928-1942"] (Tehran: Pizhūhishkadah-i Tārīkh-i Iṣlām, 1388 [2009]). Translated by ʻAbd Allāh Farahī.
• — "'Destructive Doctrinairians': Abu Mus‘ab al-Suri's Critique of the Salafis in the Jihadi Current". In Global Salafism: Islam’s New Religious Movement, edited by Roel Meijer. 249-268. New York: Oxford University Press, 2009.
• —  With Q Siddique (eds). "Understanding Global Jihadism: Origin, Evolution, and Future Trends". FFI Research Report No.09/01145. Kjeller: FFI, 2009.
• — "Al-Qaida’s Appeal: Understanding its Unique Selling Points". Perspectives on Terrorism 2, no. 8 (2008): 3-10.
• — "Doctrines for jihadi terrorist training". Terrorism and Political Violence 20, no. 4 (2008): 518-542.
• — Architect of Global Jihad: The Life of Al Qaeda Strategist Abu Musʻab Al-Suri. New York: Oxford University Press, 2007/2012.
• — "Abu Mus'ab al-Suri's Critique of Hard Line Salafists in the Jihadist Current". CTC Sentinel 1, no. 1 (2007): 1-4.
• — "Al-Suri’s Doctrines for Decentralised Jihadi Training". (Part 1), (Part 2), Terrorism Monitor: In-depth analysis of the War on Terror 5, no. 1-2 (Jan-Feb 2007).
• — With A Stenersen. "Al-Qaida’s online CBRN manuals: A real threat?". FFI Research Report No.2007/02405. Kjeller: FFI, 2007.
• — With J K Berg. "Terrorisme". Aschehoug og Gyldendals Store norske leksikon. 4. utgave 2005-2007.
• — "Al-Qaeda’s Dissident Voices". CSIS Congressional Forum on Islam (December 4, 2007).
• — "Osama bin Ladens taler og skrifter: Eit etterord". In Budskap til verden: Osama bin Ladens ytringer, edited by Bruce Lawrence. 507-523. Oslo: L.S.P. Forlag, 2007.
• — Building Arafat's Police: The Politics of International Police Assistance in the Palestinian Territories After the Oslo Agreement. Reading: Ithaca Press, 2007.
• — A Police Force Without a State: A History of the Palestinian Security Forces in the West Bank and Gaza. Reading: Ithaca Press, 2006.
• — "Al-Qaeda online: understanding jihadist internet infrastructure". Jane’s Intelligence Review 18, no. 1 (2006): 14-19.
• — With L Bokhari, T Hegghammer, P Nesser & T H Tønnessen. "Paths to Global Jihad: Radicalisation and Recruitment to Terror Networks". FFI Research Report No.2006/00935. Kjeller: FFI, 2006.
• — Globalisation and the Future of Terrorism: Patterns and Predictions. London: Routledge, 2005.
• — With K H-W Skjølberg. "Causes of Terrorism: An Expanded and Updated Review of the Literature". FFI Research Report No.2004/04307. Kjeller: FFI, 2004.
• — With T Hegghammer. "Jihadi Strategic Studies: The Alleged Al Qaida Policy Study Preceding the Madrid Bombings". Studies in Conflict and Terrorism 27, no. 5 (2004): 355-375.
• — With K H-W Skjølberg. "Warum es zu Terrorismus kommt – Ein Überblick über Theorien und Hypothesen zu den Ursachen des Terrorismus". Journal für Konflikt- und Gewaltforschung 6, no. 1 (2004): 121-163.
• — With Å Kjøk. "Energy Supply as Terrorist Targets? Patterns of 'Petroleum Terrorism' 1968-1999". In Oil in the Gulf: Obstacles to Democracy and Development, edited by Daniel Heradstveit & Helge Hveem. 100-124. Aldershot, Hampshire: Ashgate, 2004.
• — "Norge og terrortrusselen etter Irak-krigen". In Hvilket Europa etter Irak: Konsekvenser og utfordringer for Norge, edited by Franck Orban. 31-45. Oslo: Europaprogrammet, 2004.
• — "Irak og terrortrusselen: Eit oversyn over terrorgrupper med tilknyting til det irakiske regimet". FFI/Rapport-2003/00940. Kjeller: FFI, 2003.
• — With Å Kjøk. "Islamist insurgencies, diasporic support networks, and their host states - the case of the Algerian GIA in Europe 1993-2000". FFI Research Report No.2001/03789. Kjeller: FFI, 2001.
• — With Å Kjøk. "Terrorism and oil - an explosive mixture? A survey of terrorist and rebel attacks on petroleum infrastructure 1968-1999". FFI Research Report No.2001/04031. Kjeller: FFI, 2001.
• With R I V Andrésen (eds). "Terrorism, Political Violence and Organised Crime – Security Policy Challenges of Non-State Actors' Use of Violence". FFI Research Report No.2000/06444. Kjeller: FFI, 2000.
• — "Mot nye og farlegare formar for terrorisme? Trendar og utviklingstrekk ved moderne terrorisme". Internasjonal politikk 58, no. 3 (2000): 357-383.
• — "The establishment of a Palestinian police force in the West Bank and Gaza Strip". International Peacekeeping 6, no. 4) (1999): 157-170.
• — "Security challenges in Europe's mediterranean periphery: perspectives and policy dilemmas". European Security 8, no. 4 (1999): 27-56.
• — "The quest for regional security in the Middle East and North Africa: European and Arab security organisations in the Mediterranean". FFI Research Report No.99/02252. Kjeller: FFI, 1999.
• — "Islam, vestleg militærmakt og humanitær intervensjon". PACEM: Militært tidsskrift for etisk og teologisk refleksjon 2, no. 2 (1999): 133-141.
• — "Islamist perceptions of the United Nations and its peacekeeping missions: Some preliminary findings". International Peacekeeping 5, no. 2 (1998): 38-63.
• — "'Heilag krig mot vesten?': Islamismen som tryggingspolitisk utfordring". In Sikkerhetspolitisk tenkning i en ny tid: fra enhet til mangfold, edited by Anders Kjølberg & Bernt Bull. 175-212. Oslo: Europaprogrammet, 1998.
• — The Society of the Muslim Brothers in Egypt: The Rise of an Islamic Mass Movement, 1928-1942. Reading: Ithaca Press, 1998/2006.
• — "Implementing the Oslo Peace Accords: A Case Study of the Palestinian-Israeli Peace Process and International Assistance for the Enhancement of Security". FFI Research Report No.98/01711. Kjeller: FFI, 1998.
• — "Utsikter til ei fredsløysing for Sør-Libanon". FFI/Rapport-97/01446. Kjeller: FFI, 1997.
• — "The Use of History in Egyptian Party Politics". Midtøstenforum: Tidsskrift for Midtøsten og Nord-Afrika 9, no. 2 (1995): 38-43.
• — "Mubaraks regime og Muslimbrørne." Midtøstenforum: Tidsskrift for Midtøsten og Nord-Afrika 9, no. 1 (1995):  54-55.

• Lia, Brynjar (2026). Fra militsstyre til stat: I hvilken grad har Syria lyktes med å integrere landets mange militser og opprørsgrupper? Internasjonal Politikk. ISSN 0020-577X. 84(2), p. 211–225. doi: 10.23865/intpol.v84.7884. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Maktskiftet i Damaskus 8. desember 2024, da det brutale regimet til diktatoren Bashar al-Assad ble veltet av en allianse syriske opprørsgrupper, markerte slutten på den 14 år lange borgerkrigen i Syria. I spissen for de nye makthaverne stod opprørsgruppen Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS, «Organisasjonen for frigjøring av Levanten»). Den hadde styrt i Idlib-provinsen i nordvestlige Syria siden 2017 og var en terrorlistet islamistisk bevegelse hvis forløpere hadde vært del av Al Qaida-nettverket fram til 2016. HTS gjorde imidlertid raskt til skamme spådommene om at det nye Syria ville bli et Taliban-lignende styre. Borgerkrigen etterlot Syria i hendene på et stort antall milits- og opprørsgrupper hvis etnisk-religiøse tilhørighet, ideologiske plattformer og økonomiske interesser utgjorde en formidabel utfordring for de nye makthaverne i bestrebelsene på å forene Syria til ett rike. Å danne én hær i Syria og konsolidere statens monopol på våpenmakt har vært de nye makthavernes høyeste prioritet. Denne artikkelen belyser hvordan denne prosessen har gått, hvilke utfordringer myndighetene har støtt på og hvordan disse er blitt løst. Abstract in English: From Militia Rule to State: To What Extent has Syria Succeeded in Integrating the Country’s Many Militias and Rebel Groups?This article examines Syria’s post-2024 transition from a divided war-torn country heavily dominated by competing rebel and state militia groups, toward reconstituted state authority, focusing on the integration of the country’s diverse armed factions. Drawing on literature on post-conflict transitions, disarmament, demobilization and reintegration (DDR), security-sector reform (SSR), the article analyzes how Syria’s new leadership under president Ahmed al-Sharaa, formerly top commander of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has sought to consolidate a unified military apparatus. It argues that Syria’s transition differs markedly from comparable regional cases such as Lebanon, Iraq, and Palestine, where an absence of militia integration, external interference and/or direct foreign occupation, has perpetuated instability. In Syria, the new authorities pursued a near complete demobilization of Assad-era government forces, while integrating most rebel factions largely through “reflagging,” thereby allowing rebel militias to enter the new army as intact units. This policy created new potential risks, by empowering entrenched armed actors, such as the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army factions in northern Syria. A few militia groups remain outside government control, however, in particular the Israeli-backed Druze militias in Suwayda province, while the sizeable Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in north-eastern Syria has recently been incorporated following extensive negotiations, political compromises and a brief military confrontation. Despite ongoing obstacles—sectarian tensions, localized resistance, and Israeli attempts to weaken Syrian centralization—the article finds that Syria’s transition has achieved a surprising degree of institutional consolidation, defying early expectations of authoritarianism, instability and renewed conflict. The Syrian case underscores the importance of local ownership, pragmatic political leadership, and supportive international conditions in post-civil war state rebuilding.

• Lia, Brynjar & Tønnessen, Truls Hallberg (2026). Hvor ble det av jihadistene i Syria? Babylon - Nordisk tidsskrift for Midtøstenstudier. ISSN 1503-5727. 23(1), p. 69–69. doi: 10.5617/ba.13123. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Assad-regimets fall i desember 2024 førte til at en tidligere leder for al-Qaidas syriske fløy ble midlertidig president i Syria. Flere tusen fremmedkrigere var involvert i den brede koalisjonen av opprørere som veltet det forhatte diktaturet. Denne artikkelen gir en oversikt over opprørsgruppene i Syria og undersøker spesifikt fremmedkrigernes rolle i landet og hvilke utfordringer de representerer vis-à-vis de nye myndighetene.

• Lia, Brynjar (2024). Religiøs autoritet blant militante islamistar. Babylon - Nordisk tidsskrift for Midtøstenstudier. ISSN 1503-5727. 24(1), p. 62–62. doi: 10.5617/ba.11819. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Korleis kan vi vite kven militante islamistar høyrer på og betraktar som autoritative kjelder i sentrale spørsmål? Denne artikkelen forsøker å skissere nokre framgangsmåtar i studiet av jihadistpredikantar og tilhengjarskaren deira.

• Lia, Brynjar (2022). The Islamic State’s tribal policies in Syria and Iraq. Third World Thematics: A TWQ Journal. ISSN 2380-2014. doi: 10.1080/23802014.2022.2147990. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The surprising ability of the jihadist organisation “the Islamic State” to capture and hold large territories in Syria and Iraq raises important questions regarding rebel governance in civil wars. One understudied aspect in the growing literature on rebel rule is insurgents’ relations to kinship organisations. This article offers a detailed empirical exploration of ISIS’ tribal policies in the mid-2010s. It argues that ISIS’ relative success in maintaining control over tribal areas in Syria and Iraq and preventing a tribal-based uprising is due to three main factors. First, ISIS pursued well-calibrated carrot-and-stick policies vis-à-vis the tribes, which divided tribal constituencies and undermined their ability to mobilise effectively. Secondly, the politico-military situation in both Iraq and Syria contributed to deprive the Sunni-Arab tribes from trustworthy military allies and sources of external support, which forced them instead to lie low and accept ISIS rule, while waiting for ISIS to be defeated by their enemies. Thirdly, inter- and intra-tribal divisions had allowed ISIS to penetrate most tribes thereby reducing the tribe’s ability to act as cohesive and effective socio-political and military units. By comparing tribal groups and jihadist insurgents, the article also speaks to the theoretical debate on extremist advantages in civil war.

• Lia, Brynjar & Aarseth, Mathilde Becker (2022). Crusader Hirelings or Loyal Subjects? Evolving Jihadist Perspectives on Christian Minorities in the Middle East. Islam and Christian-Muslim Relations. ISSN 0959-6410. 33(3), p. 255–280. doi: 10.1080/09596410.2022.2096761. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  In contrast to common assumptions, jihadist movements’ view of Christian minorities in the Middle East has been neither unambiguous nor static. It changes according to the overall political conflict in the region and is characterized by specific, unpredictable struggles that arise locally. By studying the official statements of al-Qaeda and ISIS, their ideological and strategic writings and their conduct vis-à-vis indigenous Christians in the Middle East, this article seeks to paint a more complex picture of how jihadists perceive this minority. One key finding is that the Christians of the Middle East and the foreign Christian ‘Crusaders’ are not a single phenomenon or foe in the conceptual worldview of jihadists. Second, rather than seeking to eradicate Christians completely, jihadist movements wish primarily to demonstrate the dominance of Muslims and their role as legitimate rulers over Christian minorities. Third, terrorist attacks on Christians and churches have been devastating and deadly, especially in Egypt and Iraq, but local Christian minorities are not a top priority target for most jihadist groups.

• Lia, Brynjar (2022). A Kurdish al-Qaida? Making Sense of the Ansar al-Islam Movement in Iraqi Kurdistan in the Early 2000s. Religions. 13(3). doi: 10.3390/rel13030203. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Initially construed as the vital link between Saddam Husayn’s Iraq and al-Qaida in the runup to the Iraq war, the Ansar al-Islam (AI) group formed in Iraqi Kurdistan in December 2001 has been the subject of intense debate and huge media coverage. In academic research, however, its history, evolution and affiliation have received surprisingly little academic scrutiny. Commonly depicted as an al-Qaida affiliated group or a sub-group controlled by al-Qaida’s emerging organization in Iraq (AQI), the AI group should—this article argues—instead be understood as a strong independent-minded group with an ideology and operational pattern distinct from that of AQI. Although sharing many commonalities, the AI and AQI became de facto rivals, not allies. Contrary to accepted wisdom, the AI and its first successor group remained a distinct Salafi-jihadi insurgent group largely focused on fighting ‘the near enemy’, i.e., Kurdish and Iraqi authorities. It strongly resisted repeated calls for joining al-Qaida’s new umbrella organization in Iraq, the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI) in 2006, and it paid no homage to AQI’s or ISI’s leaders. Also on the international level, the groups were fundamentally different. As opposed to al-Qaida’s terrorist plotting abroad, the AI’s international network were hierarchical structures, geared towards raising logistical and financial support as well as recruitment. The article highlights the need for greater attention to the complexities and nuances in patterns of contacts and cooperation between militant Islamist extremists. Informed by the growing scholarship on the multifaceted nature of contemporary jihadism, its numerous manifestations in local settings, and its strong internal rifts, this paper seeks to redress the early reductionist portrayal of the AI movement.

• Tuastad, Dag Henrik; Sogge, Erling Lorentzen & Lia, Brynjar (2022). Rebel governance and kinship groups in the Middle East and Africa. Third World Thematics: A TWQ Journal. ISSN 2380-2014. 6(1-3), p. 1–11. doi: 10.1080/23802014.2022.2152862. Full text in Research Archive
• Ketchley, Neil; Brooke, Steven & Lia, Brynjar (2021). Who Supported the Early Muslim Brotherhood? Politics and Religion. ISSN 1755-0483. doi: 10.1017/S1755048321000298. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Scholarship on political Islam suggests that support for early Islamist movements came from literate merchants, government officials, and professionals who lacked political representation. We test these claims with a unique tranche of microlevel data drawn from a Muslim Brotherhood petition campaign in interwar Egypt. Matching the occupations of over 2,500 Brotherhood supporters to contemporaneous census data, we show that Egyptians employed in commerce, public administration, and the professions were more likely to sign the movement’s petitions. The movement’s supporters were also overwhelmingly literate. Contrary to expectations, the early Brotherhood also attracted support from Egyptians employed in agriculture, albeit less than we would expect given the prevalence of agrarian workers in the population. A case study tracing Muslim Brotherhood branch formation and petition activism in a Nile Delta village illustrates how literate, socially mobile agrarian families were key to the propagation of the movement in rural areas.

• Ketchley, Neil Frith; Brooke, Steven & Lia, Brynjar (2020). Who supported the early Muslim Brotherhood? Politics and Religion. ISSN 1755-0483. doi: 10.1017/S1755048321000298. Full text in Research Archive
• Lia, Brynjar (2019). Muhajirat-fenomenet: Hvordan ble kvinner fra Europa rekruttert til ISIL, og hva var deres rolle i Kalifatet? Nytt Norsk Tidsskrift (NNT). ISSN 0800-336X. 36(2), p. 100–114. doi: 10.18261/issn.1504-3053-2019-02-02. Full text in Research Archive
• Maktabi, Rania & Lia, Brynjar (2017). Middle Eastern Patriarchy in Transition. Die Welt des Islams: International Journal for the Study of Modern Islam. ISSN 0043-2539. 57(3-4), p. 265–277. doi: 10.1163/15700607-05734p01. Full text in Research Archive
• Lia, Brynjar (2017). The Jihādī Movement and Rebel Governance: A Reassertion of a Patriarchal Order? Die Welt des Islams: International Journal for the Study of Modern Islam. ISSN 0043-2539. 57(3-4), p. 458–479. doi: 10.1163/15700607-05734p09. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The rise of ISIS has drawn scholarly attention to militant Islamist movements as quasi-state actors, embracing governance as a core area of legitimation. Due to their commitment to conservative, literalist interpretations of Sharīʿa, jihādī movements have gained a reputation for being patriarchal, misogynist, and ultra-masculinist. This article seeks to qualify this perception, arguing that the social and political order established in jihādī proto-states is not based on norms and practices commonly associated with patriarchy. Although ISIS and other militant Islamist rebel rulers may outwardly have some of the trappings of a patriarchal order, especially in gender relations, they are first and foremost intensely religious-ideological communities, where blood ties and kinship play a minimal role. They are surprisingly bureaucratized and highly regulated, leaving little room for the traditional holders of power in patriarchal societies: the elders, traditional religious clerics, clan leaders, and heads of tribes. Instead, those who hold power are overwhelmingly young armed men whose authority rests on warfare skills and the mastery of extremist ideology. In the case of the ISIS “caliphate”, the most well-known jihādī proto-state, women also take part in a variety of roles outside the household, including operative and military roles, defying the image of women as passive victims.


• Lia, Brynjar (2016). Fanatismens seier? : jihadismens frammarsj i den arabiske verdenen. Babylon - Nordisk tidsskrift for Midtøstenstudier. ISSN 1503-5727. 14(2), p. 60–85. doi: 10.5617/ba.4345. Full text in Research Archive
• Lia, Brynjar (2016). En undersøgelse af islamistiske statsdannelsesforsøg. In Crone, Manni (Eds.), Splittelsen i Global Jihad. Kampen mellem IS og al-Qaeda. Dansk Institutt for Internationale Studier. ISSN 9788776058289. p. 30–43. Full text in Research Archive
• Lia, Brynjar (2016). The Islamist Uprising in Syria, 1976-82: The History and Legacy of a Failed Revolt. British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies. ISSN 1353-0194. 43(4), p. 541–559. doi: 10.1080/13530194.2016.1139442. Full text in Research Archive
• Lia, Brynjar (2016). Jihadism in the Arab world after 2011: Explaining its expansion. Middle East Policy. ISSN 1061-1924. 23(4), p. 74–91. doi: 10.1111/mepo.12234. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  One of the most puzzling developments since the watershed event of 9/11 and the onset of the U.S.-led Global War on Terror (GWOT) is the expansion of the jihadi movement in the Arab world. This has taken place despite serious efforts to prevent it from happening. Massive investments in counterterrorism and counterinsurgency by a U.S.-led international coalition, in cooperation with regional partners, have included the entire spectrum of instruments available in the state toolbox. This extensive and costly campaign notwithstanding, the past 15 years have witnessed a remarkable growth in jihadism as a rebel ideology, a military guerrilla force and a global terrorist menace. At the time of writing, "the Islamic State" is losing territory in its heartland in Syria and Iraq and in its main regional province in Libya. However, the organization has proved capable of orchestrating an unprecedented campaign of international terrorist violence (outside Iraq and Syria), claiming more than 1,200 lives on five continents between September 2014 and July 2016.2 As for the Middle East, a cursory look at key indicators of the strength of jihadism in the region over the past decade similarly confirms an ominous upward trend.

• Nesser, Petter & Lia, Brynjar (2016). Jihadism in Norway: a Typology of Militant Networks in a Peripheral European Country. Perspectives on Terrorism (PT). Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Jihadism in Norway has witnessed a huge shift from consisting primarily of foreign ethnically homogenous networks with a low capacity for mobilization, to the current situation where a loose country-wide network of domestic extremists have demonstrated a considerable capacity for foreign fighter recruitment over the past four years. In this article we introduce a typology for better understanding how jihadism takes root in Europe’s periphery.

• Lia, Brynjar (2015). "Understanding Jihadi Proto-States". Perspectives on Terrorism (PT). 9(4), p. 31–41. Full text in Research Archive
• Lia, Brynjar (2015). "Korsfarernes medløpere eller lydige undersåtter? Jihadistbevegelsens syn på kristne minoriteter i Midtøsten". In Thorbjørnsrud, Berit S (Eds.), De kristne i Midtøsten. Kampen for tilhørighet. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. ISSN 9788202488970. p. 193–213. Full text in Research Archive
• Lia, Brynjar (2015). "Autobiography or Fiction? Ḥasan al-Bannā’s Memoirs Revisited". Journal of Arabic and Islamic studies. 15, p. 199–226. doi: 10.5617/jais.4647. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Scholars dealing with the rise of contemporary Islamism and the Muslim Brothers’ early history frequently turn to Ḥasan al-Bannā’s autobiography, Mudhakkirāt al-Daʿwah wa’l-Dāʿiyah (Memoirs of the Call and the Preacher) as one major source of information about the movement’s origin. Despite the centrality of this autobiography and the abundance of references to it in Islamist literature, it remains poorly understood. Drawing upon a range of under-explored primary sources, this article argues that the autobiography was never written as a traditional ex post facto memoir. Only by recognizing its fictionalized nature and by exploring the boundaries between biography and fiction, can al-Bannā’s memoirs can be properly understood.

• Lia, Brynjar & Nesser, Petter (2014). Norske muslimske fremmedkrigere. Nytt Norsk Tidsskrift (NNT). ISSN 0800-336X. p. 399–416. Full text in Research Archive
• Lia, Brynjar (2014). Jihadbevegelsen i den arabiske verdenen før og etter 2011 :. Babylon - Nordisk tidsskrift for Midtøstenstudier. ISSN 1503-5727. 12(2), p. 8–22. doi: 10.5617/ba.4172. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  De arabiske folkeopprørene i 2010 og 2011 som tvang flere av Midtøstens mest notoriske autokrater fra makten, ble av mange tolket som et skudd for baugen for al-Qaida og jihadistbevegelsen. Demonstrantene på Tahrirplassen i Kairo var ikke-voldelige demokratiaktivister som ropte sekulære slagord som «folket ønsker å velte regimet!» og «brød, frihet og sosial rettferdighet!». Etter et tiår med intenst mediefokus på krigen mot terror var det nå de sekulære demokratiforkjempernes sin tur. De var hovedrolleinnhaverne i et historisk drama der jihadistene ikke var stort annet enn marginale tilskuere. Flere Midtøstenkjennere tolket dette som et kraftig tilbakeslag for al-Qaida og dets slagord om at væpnet kamp er det eneste effektive virkemidlet for politisk endring. Drapet på al-Qaidas ubestridte leder Osama bin Laden i mai 2011 fremstod for flere som spikeren i likkista for terrornettverket: «Skuta synker og kapteinen er død» var en av kommentarene man kunne høre i ekspertmiljøet av jihadismekjennere. I september 2014, snart fire år etter starten på de arabiske folkeopprørene, er optimistismen fra 2011 fjernere enn noen gang. Ikke bare har jihadistbevegelsen overlevd den arabiske våren, men den har ekspandert og vunnet terreng i et omfang som de færreste kunne ha forestilt seg. Per medio 2014 har jihadistbevegelsen flere mann under våpen, større territoriell kontroll og bredere geografisk nedslagsfelt i Midtøsten enn noen gang tidligere. Langt fra å gjøre al-Qaida irrelevant ble folkerevolusjonene «en gave» til jihadistbevegelsen, hevder professor Marc Lynch ved Georgetown University. Hva har skjedd og hvordan kan man forklare dette dramatiske skiftet?

• Lia, Brynjar (2011). Jihadis divided between strategists and doctrinarians. In Moghadam, Assaf & Fishman, Brian (Ed.), Fault lines in Global Jihad: Organizational, strategic, and ideological fissures. Routledge. ISSN 9780415586245. p. 69–87. Full text in Research Archive
• Lia, Brynjar (2009). Destructive doctrinians : Abu Musab al-Suri's critique of the Salafis in the jihadi current. In Meijer, Roel (Eds.), Global Salafism : Islam’s new religious movement. Hurst Publishers. ISSN 9781850659792. p. 249–268. Full text in Research Archive
• Lia, Brynjar (2008). Doctrines for jihadi terrorist training. Terrorism and Political Violence. ISSN 0954-6553. 20(4), p. 518–542. doi: 10.1080/09546550802257226. Full text in Research Archive
• Lia, Brynjar & Skjølberg, Katja (2004). "Warum es zu Terrorismus kommt – Ein Überblick über Theorien und Hypothesen zu den Ursachen des Terrorismus". Journal für Konflikt- und Gewaltforschung. ISSN 1438-9444. 6(1), p. 121–163. Full text in Research Archive
• Lia, Brynjar & Kjøk, Åshild (2004). "Energy Supply as Terrorist Targets? Patterns of 'Petroleum Terrorism' 1968-1999" in Daniel Heradstveit & Helge Hveem (eds.) Oil in the Gulf: Obstacles to Democracy and Development. Aldershot, Hampshire: Ashgate, 2004. In Hveem, Helge & Heradstveit, Daniel (Ed.), Oil in the Gulf. Obstacles to Democracy and Development. Ashgate. ISSN 9780754639688. p. 100–124. Full text in Research Archive
• Hegghammer, Thomas & Lia, Brynjar (2004). Jihadi Strategic Studies: The Alleged Al Qaida Policy Study Preceding the Madrid Bombings. Studies in Conflict and Terrorism. ISSN 1057-610X. 27(5), p. 355–375. Full text in Research Archive
• Skjølberg, Katja & Lia, Brynjar (2004). Warum es zu Terrorismus kommt - Ein Überblick über Theorien und Hypothesen zu den Ursachen des Terrorismus. Journal für Konflikt- und Gewaltforschung. ISSN 1438-9444. Full text in Research Archive
• Lia, Brynjar (2000). "Mot nye og farlegare formar for terrorisme? Trendar og utviklingstrekk ved moderne terrorisme". Internasjonal Politikk. ISSN 0020-577X. 58(3), p. 357–383. Full text in Research Archive
• Lia, Brynjar (1999). "Security challenges in Europe's mediterranean periphery: perspectives and policy dilemmas". European Security. ISSN 0966-2839. 8(4), p. 27–56. Full text in Research Archive
• Lia, Brynjar (1999). "The establishment of a Palestinian police force in the West Bank and Gaza Strip". International Peacekeeping. ISSN 1353-3312. 6(4), p. 157–170. Full text in Research Archive
• Lia, Brynjar (1998). "Islamist perceptions of the United Nations and its peacekeeping missions: Some preliminary findings". International Peacekeeping. ISSN 1353-3312. 5(2), p. 38–63. Full text in Research Archive

View all works in NVA

• Lia, Brynjar (2013). Müslüman Kardeşlerin doğuşu 1928-1942. ["The Society of the Muslim Brothers"] (Translated by İhsan Toker). Ekin Yayınları. ISBN 9789758507818. Full text in Research Archive
• Lia, Brynjar (2009). Architect of Global Jihad : the life of Al Qaeda strategist Abu Mus'ab al-Suri. Oxford University Press. ISBN 9780199326457. 510 p. Full text in Research Archive
• Lia, Brynjar (2009). (جمعیت اخوان المسلمین مصر : ظهور یک جنبش توده ای اسلامی (۱۹۲۸-۱۹۴۲. Pizhūhishkadah-i Tārīkh-i Iṣlām / Research Center for Islamic History. ISBN 9789640443965. 372 p. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Persisk oversettelse av boken Brynjar Lia, "The Society of the Muslim Brothers in Egypt: the rise of an Islamic mass movement, 1928-1942" published by Ithaca Press in 1998.

• Lia, Brynjar (2007). Building Arafat's police : the politics of international police assistance in the Palestinian territories after the Oslo agreement. Ithaca Press. ISBN 9780863723056. Full text in Research Archive
• Lia, Brynjar (2007). Architect of Global Jihad: the life of al-Qaida strategist Abu Mus'ab al-Suri. C Hurst & Co Publishers Ltd. ISBN 9781850658566. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  With more than 35 years experience of jihadist activism, Abu Mus'ab al-Suri remains the foremost theoretician in the global jihadist movement today, despite his capture in Pakistan in late 2005. After having participated in the founding of Al-Qaeda inAfghanistan in 1988, al-Suri, whose real name is Mustafa Sethmarian Nasar, trained a whole generation of young jihadis at his camps in Afghanistan. When he moved back to Spain in the early 1990s, al-Suri took part in establishing Al-Qaeda networks in Europe. In the mid-1990s, he rose to prominence in jihadi circles as editor of the London-based bulletin of the Algerian Groupe Islamique Armee, the most deadly Islamist terrorist group operating in Europe at the time. Al-Suri later formed his own media centre and training camp in Taleban-ruled Afghanistan, to which he returned in 1998. Building on his extensive military experience from the Syrian Islamist insurgency in the early 1980s, he contributed decisively to formulating Al-Qaeda's global warfare strategy. Throughout his writings there is a desire to learn from past mistakes and rectify the course of the jihadi movement.His 1,600 page masterpiece, "The Global Islamic Resistance Call", outlines a broad strategy for the coming generation of Al-Qaeda, with a keen eye for the practical implementation of jihadi guerrilla warfare theories. His ideas of how to maximise the political impact of jihadi violence and how to build autonomous cells for 'individualised terrorism' have inspired many jihadi militants of today. The book includes a translation of two key chapters from al-Suri's seminal work "The Global Islamic Resistance Call."

• Lia, Brynjar (2006). A Police Force Without a State: A History of the Palestinian Security Forces in the West Bank and Gaza. Ithaca Press. ISBN 9780863723049. 477 p. Full text in Research Archive
• Lia, Brynjar (1998). The Society of the Muslim Brothers in Egypt: The Rise of an Islamic Mass Movement, 1928-1942. Ithaca Press. ISBN 9780863723148. 328 p. Full text in Research Archive

View all works in NVA

• Tuastad, Dag Henrik & Lia, Brynjar (2025). Kronikk: Syria trenger tid. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Mange syrere er håpefulle om fremtiden. Da bør utenforstående ikke gjøre overgangsperioden vanskeligere, skriver Dag Tuastad og Brynjar Lia.

• Haga, Lars Peder & Lia, Brynjar (2023). Planla våpensalg til Putin – så ombestemte Abdel Fattah al-Sisi seg. [Internet]. Nettavisen. Full text in Research Archive
• Lia, Brynjar (2023). Al-Qaʿida Revisited. Bustan: The Middle East Book Review. ISSN 1878-5301. 14(1), p. 17–34. doi: 10.5325/bustan.14.1.0017. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This essay addresses the history of Usama bin Laden’s al-Qaʿida and the U.S.’s global war on terror through the prism of two new books by leading experts in the field. Nelly Lahoud’s book makes important use of new documents seized at bin Laden’s compound in Abbottabad. Peter Bergen explores the relationship between Pakistan, al-Qaʿida, and the American war on terror. Both of these books add to the scholarly literature and shed light on existing debates in the field of jihadism studies. And examined in combination these books help scholars in the field conceptualize broader analytical issues that are important not only for how one understands al-Qaʿida, but also, more generally, for how one interprets and evaluates the history of jihadi organizations. For example, how does one judge success and failure for these groups? And what is the proper framework for analyzing the relationship between the central leaderships of these organizations and their regional branches, or even those who are inspired to act in their name? How do we explain the resilience and longevity of al-Qaʿida and its ideology? These two books help point the way forward for future scholars in the field.

• Nickelsen, Trine & Lia, Brynjar (2018). Jihadistene setter ungdommen til å styre. Apollon : Forskningsmagasin for Universitetet i Oslo. ISSN 0803-6926. p. 28–31. Full text in Research Archive
• Lia, Brynjar (2018). Islamistisk ekstremisme - en innføring. In Reiss, Ellen Christine & Noor, Linda (Ed.), Radikalisering: fenomen og forebygging. Minotenk / Frekk forlag. ISSN 9788293097488. p. 93–103. Full text in Research Archive
• Lia, Brynjar (2015). "'Islamsk stat' – vanlegare enn du trur", Apollon, 4/2015, s.51-53. [Journal]. Apollon. Full text in Research Archive
• Trine, Nickelsen & Lia, Brynjar (2014). "Fire år etter den arabiske våren: Hva nå, Midtøsten?", Forskningsmagasinet Apollon, 4/2014, s.16-21. [Journal]. Forskningsmagasinet Apollon. Full text in Research Archive
• Hegghammer, Thomas & Lia, Brynjar (2009). Truer verden med terrorangrep. Full text in Research Archive
• Lia, Brynjar (2008). Al-Qaida's appeal: understanding its unique selling points. Perspectives on Terrorism (PT). 2(8), p. 23–28. Full text in Research Archive
• Skjølberg, Katja & Lia, Brynjar (2007). FACTS AND FICTION IN THEORIES OF TERRORISM - An Expanded and Updated Review of the Literature on Causes of Terrorism. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This essay presents a critical survey of the academic literature on the causes of domestic political violence and terrorism. Drawing on a broad specter of research on peace and civil conflict, this study focuses primarily on theories that seek to explain why some societies are more exposed to domestic terrorism than others, i.e. theories on individual, group and societal levels of analysis. The study underscores the importance of understanding terrorism in its socio-political context, identifying political and socio-economic conditions that are likely to generate high levels of terrorism. Being a relatively comprehensive survey of theories on the causes of terrorism, the study is presumably useful for students and scholars in the field of terrorism research, as well as for practitioners and policy-makers involved in planning long-term preventive and counter-terrorism strategies.

• Skjølberg, Katja & Lia, Brynjar (2003). Facts and Fiction in Theories of Terrorism - A Review of Research Literature on Causes of Terrorism. Full text in Research Archive
• Lia, Brynjar (2010). Doctrinairians vs Strategists: Fissures in the Jihadi Current. Combating Terrorism Center. Full text in Research Archive
• Nesser, Petter & Lia, Brynjar (2010). Lessons Learned from the July 2010 Norwegian Terrorist Plot. West Point. Full text in Research Archive
• Hegghammer, Thomas; Bokhari, Laila; Lia, Brynjar; Nesser, Petter & Tønnessen, Truls (2006). Paths to Global Jihad: Radicalisation and Recruitment to Terror Networks. Forsvarets forskningsinstitutt. ISSN 9788246410005. Full text in Research Archive
• Nesser, Petter & Lia, Brynjar (2005). Terror mot jarnvegar : eit oversyn over typiske terroraksjonar mot togpassasjertransport. Forsvarets forskningsinstitutt . ISSN 9788246409542. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This report describes and categorizes the most typical terrorist attacks against train passengers and the passengercarryingrailway systems.Compared to other parts of the civilian infrastructure, including the transportation sector, public railway transportationhas been a relatively frequent target for terrorist attacks and threats in countries with active terrorist organisations.Furthermore, the railways have also been scene for a number of mass casualty-attacks, including several of the worstterrorist attacks in modern European history. These include the bombings of three train carriers in the LondonUnderground in July 2005, four trains at a railway station in Madrid in March 2004, at a Moscow subway station inFebruary 2004, and at the Central Station in Bologna, Italy in august 1980.The report emphasises that despite the wide variety of types of potential mass casualty attacks, most deadly terroristattacks have in fact occurred at the railway stations, and the most typical terrorist weapon remains a small bomb.

• Lia, Brynjar & Skjølberg, Katja (2005). Causes of terrorism : an expanded and updated review of the literature. Forsvarets forskningsinstitutt . ISSN 9788246409498. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This report presents a critical survey of the academic literature on the causes of terrorism. The study focuses primarilyon theories that seek to explain why some societies are more exposed to terrorism than others, i.e. theories on a nationalor societal level of analysis. It also examines theoretical frameworks for explaining terrorism on an international orworld system level of analysis.The report underscores the importance of understanding terrorism in its political and societal contexts. By identifyingthe socio-economic conditions, political regime factors and international system characteristics that are most likely togenerate high levels of terrorism, the study also provides useful tools for trend analysis and forecasting.

• Nesser, Petter & Lia, Brynjar (2003). Terror mot drikkevann : en oversikt over terrorgruppers interesse for å ramme offentlig vannforsyning. Forsvarets forskningsinstitutt . ISSN 9788246407616. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The present report examines the terrorist threat to Norwegian water supplies. The new threat environment in the post9/11era is explored and is followed by a global survey of nearly 50 terrorist and sabotage attacks against water suppliesduring the past thirty years, collected from various chronologies and databases.The study concludes that water supplies are only of marginal interest to most terrorist organisations. The study hasfound no evidence of any successful terrorist attack using poisoning or polluting agents against large water reservoirs.There have been a small number of poison attacks against local water supplies, however, and a slightly higher numberof bomb attacks against parts of water supply infrastructure.The study recommends that more attention should be given to vulnerabilities in the local distribution systems, primarilywith regards to buildings housing typically high-risk terrorist targets

• Lia, Brynjar; Hegghammer, Thomas; Andresen, Rolf-Inge Vogt; kjøk, åshild & Bokhari, Laila (2002). Atommateriale, gass og mikrober som terrorvåpen? - en undersøkelse av terrorgruppers interesse for og bruk av ikke-konvensjonelle våpen. Forsvarets forskningsinstitutt . Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This report analyses empirical evidence of terrorist and rebel groups’ efforts at acquiring and using chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (CBRN) substances as ‘weapons’. The significant technical and political-ideological obstacles to acquiring and/or developing an effective weapon of mass destruction, based on CBRN substances are described and discussed. Drawing upon the WMD Terrorism Database, produced by Center for Non-Proliferation, Monterey, 41 incidents of serious acquisition attempts and/or use of WMD by non-state groups have been selected, based on specific criteria, and examined in detail. Although the Japanese cult Aum Shinrikyo alone accounts for a significant number of the recorded incidents (and admittedly the most serious ones), serious cases of CBRN acquisition and/or use by terrorist and rebel groups have occurred in as many as 11 countries. Our analysis shows that religious groups, while representing only a fraction of conventional terrorism, are greatly over-represented among the perpetrating groups, followed by ethnic-separatist groups. Chemical substances constitute the weapon of choice, accounting for more than half of the incidents, followed by biological substances, and radiological material. There are no recorded incidents of terrorist acquisition of weapon grade nuclear substances. Domestic groups account for nearly all attacks. The study also offers a series of case studies of non-state acquisition and/or use of CBRN substances, including Japanese cult ‘Aum Shinrikyo’, radical Islamist al-Qa‘ida (or the bin Laden group). The report recommends increased policy attention to improve national response capacity and preparedness to counter and handle low-scale CBRN terrorist incidents.

• Lia, Brynjar & Skjølberg, Katja (2000). Why terrorism occurs - a survey of theories and hypotheses on the causes of terrorism. Forsvarets forskningsinstitutt . ISSN 9788246404172. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Research literature on terrorism has often been criticised for a general lack of scientifically sound theoretical researchon patterns and causes of terrorism. This report provides an updated survey of existing theories and hypotheses on thecauses of terrorism, drawing upon studies not only from recent terrorism research literature, but also from general socialscience and conflict studies. The purpose of this survey is to establish analytical tools for predicting future patterns anddevelopments of terrorism, which is a major research objective of the Terrorism and Asymmetric Warfare Project. Atthe end of the report, we deal briefly with a few security policy implications of the theories surveyed. They have beendiscussed more fully, however, in our report “Globalisation and the Future of Terrorism: Patterns and Predictions”,FFI/RAPPORT-2000/01703.

• Lia, Brynjar (2000). Globalisation and the future of terrorism - patterns and predictions. Forsvarets forskningsinstitutt . ISSN 9788246404288. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The present report is a continuation of the work presented in previous reports on an analytical framework for the studyof terrorism and asymmetric threats, on the potential for terrorist strikes against infrastructure, and on theories on thecauses of terrorism. In the wake of the Cold War, concern has been expressed with regard to new and complex threats tosecurity. The report takes on the widely diverging statements made in existing literature and aims at developing asystematic basis on which to evaluate future trends in terrorism. The study identifies societal conditions that can affectthe occurrence of terrorism and the degree to which they are undergoing change. By linking the analysis of societalfactors with theories on the causes of terrorism, the present report draws conclusions on future patterns of terrorism.Postulates are reviewed in five issue areas: the international system, the global market economy, demography andideological changes, and technology. It is impossible to give a precise answer on the occurrence of terrorism in thefuture. Instead, trends point in opposing directions; some conducive to domestic and international terrorism, someindicating different kinds of terrorism, with varying degrees of lethality and different types of actors and some that arelikely to discourage terrorism. There are no systemic factors that clearly show that there will be more terrorism in thefuture, but there are indicators of the emergence of more transnational, less state-oriented and more lethal forms ofterrorism.

View all works in NVA